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One place to judge whether an option subscription makes sense: what the market charges for volatility right now, what a provider's quote is really worth, and how open opportunities compare — in plain language, priced with a validated engine.
Asset
History
Analysis date

1 · Market state

Is the market paying sellers of options well right now? Compare what options charge against how much the asset has actually moved.

Implied vs realised volatility

DVOL (Deribit 30-day implied volatility index) against 30-day realised. The gap is the seller's margin.
Implied (DVOL) Realised 30d
View as table

Volatility cone — is today high or low?

Grey bands: where realised vol has sat over the last 2 years (5–95% and 25–75%). Dots: today.
Realised today Implied by expiry
View as table

Term structure — premium by horizon

At-the-money implied volatility for each listed expiry, against 30-day realised.
View as table

2 · Check a provider quote

Type in a quote exactly as a provider gives it — any convention. The hub converts it to implied volatility, compares it with what the listed market pays for the identical option right now, and gives a verdict a non-specialist can act on.

Where the quote sits on the listed curve

Implied vol by strike at the matched expiry. Band = listed bid–ask.
Listed mark Your quote
View strike table

Payoff at expiry

With subscription Doing nothing

Scenarios at expiry

What the position is worth if the price lands here, per $1M notional.

3 · Compare opportunities

Saved quotes are re-marked against today's listed surface and remaining tenor — a quote that was fair last week may not be fair now. The baseline grid shows what the listed market itself pays a seller today, which any provider quote must beat.

Saved provider quotes

Listed baseline — annualised premium a seller earns today

From listed bid quotes (the side we could actually sell at), interpolated across the surface. Darker = richer. A provider must beat the matching cell after costs.

4 · The basics, in plain language

For anyone on the team who does not live in options land.
What does “subscribing an option” actually mean?

It means selling insurance on a price move, and being paid a premium upfront for it. A covered call: the treasury holds ETH and sells someone the right to buy that ETH at a fixed higher price (the strike) on a fixed date. If ETH stays below the strike, we keep the ETH and the premium. If it rises above, we sell at the strike — we still keep the premium, but give up the upside beyond the strike.

A cash-secured put is the mirror: we hold cash and sell someone the right to sell us ETH at a fixed lower price. We keep the premium either way; if the price falls below the strike we end up buying ETH at the strike — more expensive than the market at that point, so it only makes sense at a strike where we would be happy accumulating.

What is implied volatility, and why does the hub convert everything into it?

An option's price mostly reflects how much movement the market expects — that expectation, expressed as an annualised percentage, is implied volatility (IV). Converting every quote into IV puts a 3-week quote, a 3-month quote, a % premium and an APR all in the same unit, so they can be compared with each other and with the live listed market. A premium that looks generous in % terms can be stingy in vol terms, and vice versa.

How does the hub decide a verdict?

Three tests, in order. First: is the quote's IV above the asset's recent realised volatility? Selling movement for less than the asset actually moves is a losing trade regardless of the headline yield — quotes below realised are blocked. Second: is the quote at least 3 vol points above the listed bid — what Deribit would pay us for the identical option right now? Less than that and the listed market is the better counterparty. Third: anything between the listed bid and roughly fair value is negotiable — defensible if the provider brings real operational advantages (no margin management, on-chain settlement, size).

What are the risks — what can go wrong?

Covered call: the downside of the asset is still fully ours — the premium is a small cushion, not protection. And if the price flies through the strike, the upside beyond it belongs to the buyer; that regret is uncapped, which is why strike choice matters more than premium size. Cash-secured put: if the market crashes we buy at the strike, above the new market price. The right frame: only sell puts at prices where accumulating would genuinely be welcome. Both: premium is compensation for risk, never free yield. If a yield looks too good, the volatility being sold is being underpriced somewhere.

Why compare against the listed bid and not the mid?

The mid is where nobody trades. If we sell, we sell at the bid — so the bid is the honest benchmark for what a provider must beat. Rule inherited from the July research: when you must sell, use the bid; when you must buy, the ask; never the mark.

What if an asset has no listed options, like COW?

Then there is no market price to compare an offer with, so the hub builds a fair price from the asset's own movement. It measures how much COW actually moved over a window you choose (the last 7 to 180 days, or the 2-year typical level), and prices the same option at that volatility. That is the premium a seller needs to be paid for the movement COW really has.

An offer below fair pays for less movement than COW delivers: the buyer gets the better side. Two honest limits: the past does not guarantee the future, and the fair price uses one volatility for every strike, while puts far below spot normally deserve extra. Treat fair as a floor, not a target.

When is it simply the wrong time to subscribe?

Two red flags. Implied below realised — sellers are being underpaid for actual movement; wait. Very low vol percentile — premiums are thin in absolute terms; capping upside for a small premium right before a vol expansion is the classic treasury mistake. The best moments to subscribe combine IV above realised and a decent absolute vol level, at strikes the treasury is happy to be exercised at.